Who Had the Best 2019-20 NBA Finals Odds Before the Season Started?

I remember sitting down with my preseason predictions spreadsheet in October 2019, feeling that particular mix of excitement and uncertainty that always accompanies a new NBA season. The landscape looked dramatically different from what we'd seen in recent years, with Kevin Durant's move to Brooklyn and Kawhi Leonard heading to the Clippers creating what many believed would be a significant power shift. As I analyzed the championship odds across various sportsbooks, one thing became immediately clear - the Los Angeles Clippers had emerged as the overwhelming favorites, with most books listing them around +300 to +350. That's roughly a 25-28% implied probability for those who don't regularly convert betting odds.

Having covered the NBA for over a decade, I've learned that preseason favorites don't always deliver, but the Clippers' case felt particularly compelling. They were returning a playoff team from the previous season and adding both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. I recall thinking this was perhaps the most significant single-season transformation I'd witnessed since the Miami Heat formed their superteam back in 2010. The Lakers, despite adding Anthony Davis to pair with LeBron James, generally sat as the second choice at around +400. The defending champion Raptors, having lost Kawhi, had plummeted to +2500 despite their deep roster and championship pedigree. Milwaukee maintained respect at approximately +600, reflecting Giannis's MVP season and the Bucks' continued regular-season dominance.

What fascinated me most that preseason was how the odds reflected not just team quality but narrative appeal. The Clippers had that new-car smell that bettors and analysts love, while teams like Denver (+1600) and Utah (+1800) felt undervalued despite their obvious strengths. I personally placed a small wager on Philadelphia at +1200, believing their size and defensive versatility could cause problems in a playoff setting, though I'll admit my heart overruled my head on that one. The Warriors' dramatic fall from perennial favorites to +1400 longshots after Kevin Durant's departure and Klay Thompson's injury represented one of the most dramatic single-season odds shifts I've ever recorded in my notes.

Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, it's almost amusing how wrong we all were about how that season would unfold. The team that eventually won it all, the Lakers, weren't even the preseason favorites in most books. This brings to mind something I once heard from a coaching colleague about belief preceding achievement. He mentioned, "And in the eyes of his coach Sean Chambers, there's no question that Konateh could back his words up." That sentiment resonates when I think about the Lakers that season - they carried themselves with a championship conviction long before they actually secured the title, much like Konateh in Chambers' assessment.

The disparity between preseason projections and actual outcomes highlights why I've become somewhat skeptical of early championship betting. Teams that look great on paper don't always coalesce, while squads with the right chemistry often outperform their theoretical ceiling. The Miami Heat, who eventually reached the finals, were sitting at a whopping +8000 before the season started. That's a 1.2% implied probability for a team that would prove to be one of the toughest outs in the bubble. I kick myself for not placing even a token bet on them, though in my defense, virtually nobody saw their finals run coming.

What the oddsmakers got right was recognizing the NBA's move toward superstar duos. The top four betting favorites - Clippers, Lakers, Bucks, and Sixers - all featured what we believed would be dominant pairings. Where they missed was in understanding how those pairings would actually function. The Clippers' chemistry issues became apparent well before the playoffs, while the Lakers' LeBron-AD connection proved more seamless than anticipated. The Rockets at +1600 with their small-ball experiment fascinated me, though I never bought into their championship viability despite James Harden's individual brilliance.

The most valuable lesson from that preseason odds retrospective isn't about being right or wrong in predictions - it's about recognizing how quickly circumstances change in the NBA. The season suspension in March, the bubble environment, the unexpected health challenges - these variables were completely unforeseeable in October 2019. Yet they profoundly shaped the eventual champion in ways no oddsmaker could have priced into their calculations. This unpredictability is precisely what keeps my job interesting year after year, even when my preseason picks end up looking foolish by June.

If I had to identify one key takeaway from analyzing those 2019-20 preseason odds, it would be the danger of groupthink in championship forecasting. The consensus around the Clippers was so strong that it drowned out legitimate concerns about their roster construction and chemistry. Meanwhile, teams like the Heat and Nuggets offered tremendous value that went largely ignored because their narratives weren't as compelling. As I prepare for next season's predictions, I'm reminding myself to look beyond the obvious stories and dig deeper into the factors that truly drive championship success - because as we saw in that unforgettable bubble season, the preseason favorites don't always have the last laugh.